Saturday, March 14, 2015

What the Hell Happened?

While I was compiling data for my list about top mid-major seasons, I kept encountering inexplicable results: outcomes that were so unexpected, I had to double-check the box scores. Every season has its upsets, but so many of those are predicated on things like preseason rankings and assumptions that teams will continue their trajectories from the previous season. But these results defy explanation. They include good teams that have hiccups against terrible teams, bad teams that play lights-out for exactly one game, and ties. So many ties.

Here are some of these inexplicable results, loosely categorized for your reading pleasure.

Season-Wreckers


2. 1982 Washington

10/30: Stanford (4-3) over Washington (7-0), 43–31. Washington ranked #2 at the time.
11/20: Washington State (2-7-1) over Washington (9-1), 24–20. Washington ranked #5 at the time.

Washington would finish 10-2, Stanford would finish 5-6, and Washington State would finish 3-7-1.

1. 1984 Navy over South Carolina

11/17: Navy (3-5-1) over South Carolina (9-0), 38–21. South Carolina ranked #2 at the time.

Hit the Snooze Bar One Too Many Times


These were season-opening or early-season games whose results looked more inexplicable as the season wore on.

5. 2007 Wyoming (5-7) over Virginia (9-4), 23–3. Virginia would win its next seven games, while Wyoming would go 1-6 over its last seven.

4. 1983 Cincinnati (4-6-1) over Penn State (8-4), 143. Penn State was the defending national champion and fell from #4 to #20 in the next AP poll. It was Cincinnati's only win over a team with a winning record.

3. 1994 Hawaii (3-8-1) over Oregon (9-4), 3616. Oregon would go on to win the Pac-10. Hawaii would win only one other game against a I-A team.

2. 1991 USC (3-8) over Penn State (11-2), 2110. Penn State would finish ranked #3. USC wouldn't beat another team with a winning record.

1. 1989 Southern Miss (5-6) over Florida State (10-2), 3026. Florida State started the season coming off 11 straight wins and a Sugar Bowl victory. It would finish ranked #3. Southern Miss would enjoy one week being ranked before losing four straight.

Same-Season Inexplicable Results


4. 1992 Arkansas (would finish 3-7-1)

Week 1: lost to Citadel, 10–3
Week 6: beat #4 Tennessee (9-3) in Knoxville, 25–24

3. 2003 Memphis (would finish 9-4)

Week 2: beat Mississippi 44–34. Mississippi would finish 10-3.
Week 5: lost to Mississippi State, 35–27. Mississippi State would finish 2-10.

2. 1999 Rose Bowl participants (8-3 Stanford and 9-2 Wisconsin)

Week 3: Cincinnati (3-8) over Wisconsin, 17–12
Week 5: San Jose State (3-7) over Stanford, 44–39

1. 1998 North Carolina State (would finish 7-5)

Week 2: beat #2 Florida State (11-2), 24–7
Week 3: lost to Baylor (2-9), 33–30

LOL OT


6. 1992 Virginia Tech (2-8-1) ties North Carolina State (9-3-1), 13–13.

5. 1986 Washington State (3-7-1) ties Arizona State (10-1-1), 21–21.

4. 1986 Arkansas State (I-AA) ties Mississippi (8-3-1), 10–10.

3. 1985 Rutgers (2-8-1) ties Florida (9-1-1), 28–28.

2. 1980 Georgia Tech (1-9-1) ties Notre Dame (9-2-1), 3–3. Notre Dame was ranked #1 at the time and would fall to #6 in the next AP poll.

1. 1994 SMU (1-9-1) ties Texas A&M (10-0-1), 21–21. Texas A&M would fall from #7 to #11 and finish the season ranked behind five other teams with one or more losses.

COMBO BREAKER


2. 1990 Iowa State (4-6-1) over #16 Oklahoma (8-3), 33–31. This was Iowa State's first win over Oklahoma in 29 years. It had lost the intervening games by a total of 954–296.

1. 1992 Iowa State (4-7) over #7 Nebraska (9-3), 19–10. Iowa State had lost to I-AA Northern Iowa by 17 points in Week 4. It was Iowa State's first win over Nebraska in 15 years.

'Murican


2. 2013 USF (2-10) over Cincinnati (9-4), 26–20

1. 2014 UConn (2-10) over UCF (9-4, conference co-champ), 37–29


SEC Network


3. 2014 Indiana (4-8) over Missouri (11-3, SEC East Champ), 31–27

2. 1995 SMU (1-11) over Arkansas (8-5, SEC West Champ), 17–14

1. 1986 Bowling Green (8-4) over LSU (9-3, SEC Champ), 21–12


WTF


5. 1979 Rice (1-10) over Tulane (9-3), 21–17. Tulane beat seven power-conference teams and independent Boston College, but lost to a foodstuff.

4. 1998 Temple (2-9) over Virginia Tech (9-3), 28–24. Virginia Tech would play for the national championship the following season. Temple had lost to I-AA William & Mary two weeks earlier, had lost eight straight in all, and had not beaten a team that finished with a winning record in eight years.

3. 1989 New Mexico (then 1-10) over #23 Fresno State (then 10-0), 45–22. This defies explanation.

2. 1981 Georgia Tech (1-10) over Alabama (9-2-1), 24–21. Alabama would be ranked #3 entering bowl season.

1. 1985 UTEP (1-11) over BYU (11-3), 23–16. This is the definitive "Bat Country" game. At the time of the game, UTEP was 0-6 and had lost 24 of its last 25 games against I-A opponents (and had even lost to one I-AA opponent as well). BYU was the defending national champion, ranked #7, and had won 18 straight conference games and 30 of its last 31 games.

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