Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Explanation of the YFTS Rankings

(UPDATED 10/26) It occurred to me that I should probably explain the YFTS rankings before I start getting complaints from people about why their team isn't in the Top 25 (short answer: because your team sucks). The goal behind the rankings was to try to create a simple ratings formula that would accurately mimic all the factors that human pollsters take into account when they rank teams, but also eliminate bias from the equation, be it historical (Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame), based on ridiculous preseason rankings (Clemson), or bandwagon-riding/darkhorse-picking (Texas Tech).

No one in my theoretical mathematics courses ever looked like this.
Except for Kyle the tranny.


A team's YFTS rating represents the average of each of its individual weekly ratings. The weekly rating is determined thusly:
  1. Win/Loss Points—a team receives +5 points for a win or -5 points for a loss.
  2. Quotient of Victory/Defeat—in the case of a win, the margin of victory points (1.67 for a one-score win, 3.34 for a two-score win, or 5 for a greater-than-two-score win) are multiplied by the opponent's winning percentage; in the case of a loss, the margin of defeat points are multiplied by 1 minus the opponent's winning percentage (to account for the negative margin).
  3. Score Bonus—a "score bonus" is determined by multiplying the opponent's winning percentage with the ratio of the team's points scored to its opponent's.
  4. Road Bonus—in the event of a road win, a team receives additional points equal to one-half its Score Bonus.
  5. Finally, the weekly rating equals the sum of the Win/Loss Points, the Quotient of Victory/Defeat, the Score Bonus and, if applicable, the Road Bonus.
What does all that mean?
  1. Win/Loss Points—simple enough.
  2. Quotient of Victory/Defeat—the size of the win is linearly attached to the quality of the opponent, but there are no rewards or penalties for blowouts. Big win over a good team = lots of points. Close win over a bad team = barely any points.
  3. Score Bonus—this is similar to the Quotient rating, only it takes into account raw scoring output. A good example would be the Mizzou-Illinois game in week 1. Illinois actually received a higher Score Bonus than Mizzou because it was able to score 42 points against an undefeated team. Mizzou, however, only won by 10 points against a .500 team. The Score Bonus acts as a consolation prize to a losing team that performs well, plus it adds a small bonus to the winning team depending on how soundly it defeated its opponent. Shutouts are particularly significant (see Arizona).
  4. Road Bonus—a small bonus for winning on the road. The higher the Score Bonus, the higher the Road Bonus.
  5. Weekly Rating—a sum of individual components assessed on a weekly basis. Each weekly rating is dynamic, taking into account the season-long performance of each opponent. If Virginia happens to run the table, USC's week 1 rating will shoot through the roof, boosting its overall rating.

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